CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WOODLAND SPECIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CONSERVATION OF WOODLAND HABITATS IN IRELAND

Global climate is rapidly changing and, while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of woodland species in the wider European context, few have focused on the impacts of climate change on the distribution of woodland species in Ireland. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of species characteristic of woodlands and assesses the implications for the conservation of woodlands in Ireland. Only some 2% of the land area of Ireland is covered in semi-natural woodlands, including communities which are conservation priorities such as bog woodland, alluvial forests and Taxus baccata (Yew) woods. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data for 104 vascular plant, bryophyte, bird and butterfly species from Ireland, baseline climate data (1961-1990) and projected future climate data (HadCM3 GCM; 2031-2060), at a 10km(2) resolution. Of the 104 species, 44 modelled well in at least 6 of the 8 models. Under a scenario of unlimited dispersal, almost 50% of species which modelled well were projected to lose climate space, with the largest range contraction projected for the butterfly Aphantopus hyperantus (Ringlet; -47.7%). The remainder were projected to have increased climate space, with Thecla betulae (Brown hairstreak) and Frangula alnus (Alder buckthorn) having the largest projected increases of 886% and 532% of their current ranges. When a scenario of limited long-range dispersal was considered, all species were projected to lose some of their current range, from a decrease of 52.4% for Carex strigosa (thin-spiked wood-sedge) to a decrease of 10.9% for Saxifraga spathularis (St Patrick's cabbage). These results have significant implications for the future of woodlands in Ireland. Conservation management plans for these habitats need greater focus on potential climate change impacts in order to ensure these communities' long-term survival.