Spatial and temporal variabilities of rainfall in tropical South America as derived from Climate Prediction Center merged analysis of precipitation

We investigated the spatial and temporal variabilities of Climate Prediction Center merged analysis of precipitation (CMAP) in tropical South America from 1979 to 1998. First, we validated CMAP using other hydro meteorological data. In comparison with the high-density precipitation data of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Ver. 2, CMAP reproduces the spatial pattern well, although it underestimates (overestimates) heavy (light) precipitation. CMAP also reproduces the interannual variability well, compared with the discharge data of the River Amazon. Next, we applied the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) to CMAP after subtracting the annual cycle. Simultaneous and lag correlations were calculated aniong the scores of REOFs 1 to 4, the southern oscillation index, and the dipole index of the Atlantic. REOF 1 (15%) represents the north-south pattern that exhibits the maximum precipitation in the summer hemisphere. REOF 2 (12%) indicates the gradual decrease of precipitation in the northern part of tropical South America, reflecting the effect of the Atlantic. REOF 3 (11%) exhibits an east-west pattern related to El Nino. In REOF 4 (7%), the centre of the factor loading is located in Colombia, and the score jumps abruptly around 1985-86. The Lepage test detected the abrupt increase of CMAP in 1985-86 around Colombia. Since such a jump is not found in GHCN Ver. 2, the discontinuous changes of CMAP and REOF 4 around 1985-86 are artificial and peculiar to CMAP. In this region, CMAP should be applied with caution when evaluating recent trends and the interannual variability. The importance of the abrupt increase of precipitation around Colombia is also addressed. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.