System Dynamics Based Simulation and Forecast of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity of Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone

The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) of Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone (LNCEZ) is studied and forecasted to provide the support on science and technology for the sustainable development of LNCEZ. The system dynamics (SD) approach is applied to construct the WRCC model of LNCEZ. The simulated verification of the model built in the paper on historical data shows that the relative error between real value and simulated value is small and the model is reliable. We design eight solutions to manage the water resources, and employee the model, whose baseline year is the year 2005, to simulate the development tendency of the WRCC of LNCEZ. The simulated results show that the supply volumes of water resources of LNCEZ are greater than its demand volumes under 8th solution till the year 2020. That is, the model, its simulated results, and the management solution for water resources have great significant to the sustainable development of the water resources and economics of LNCEZ.