Estimation of indirect demographic losses in Ukraine due to armed conflict

Any military actions lead to population losses. Direct losses - killed and dead as a result of armed confrontation, forced emigration, as well as the loss of residents through the alienation of the territory in which they remained. The estimate of the extent of direct demographic losses could partly be done by current estimation and more completely - by census. But any statistical survey is not able to determine the size of indirect losses - the number of unborn children due to the hostilities. In this case, it's possible to apply statistical modeling. In this article we presented the results of statistical estimation of the impact of armed conflict on reduction of the number of births using the Interrupted ARIMA model (0,1,1)(0,0,1)4, which also takes into account the seasonal character of childbearing. The model allows us to conclude that the number of births in Ukraine only in the second quarter of 2014 decreased by 9749 persons, through the annexation of the Crimea and the armed conflict in the Donbas. Continued hostilities, worsening of medical-demographic and socio-economic situation as in combat zone, as well as generally around Ukraine, gives reason to anticipate a further increase in indirect demographic losses.