Status and Driving Forces of CO2 Emission of the National Low Carbon Pilot: Case Study of Guangdong Province during 1995-2015

Guangdong Province is the first batch of national low carbon pilots of China. Studying the interrelationships of economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emission, as well as the driving forces of carbon emission is not only important for the local mitigation strategy, but also for the experience which can be provided for the other regions. In this work, carbon emission within Guangdong province was calculated from 1995 to 2015. Co-relationships of economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emission were analyzed during the past two decades. In addition, driving force of carbon emission was investigated by applying the LMDI method. Results show that economic growth in Guangdong Province from 1995-2015 can be divided into the Mild Grow Stage, Fast Grow Stage, and the New Normal Stage. During the First two stages, energy consumption and carbon emission increase with the steps of economic growth. However, carbon emission evolves with the fluctuation of economic growth during the third stage, while energy consumption keeps increasing continuously. Decomposition analysis shows that economic and demographic growth both play positive role on carbon emission of Guangdong province. Moreover, for the majority of sub periods, the decomposition of energy intensity is helpful for carbon reduction of Guangdong Province. Energy structure adjustment also is beneficial for controlling carbon emission increase for most years. Furthermore, there is still potential for the development of technology mitigation, because the effect of carbon intensity always takes role as promoting carbon emission in Guangdong Province for the past two decades. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.