Decomposition analysis of factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions across provinces in China

Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter with large increased annual carbon dioxide emissions and thus faces growing pressure to control carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The Chinese government announced the targets of reducing carbon intensity by 2020 and peaking absolute carbon dioxide emissions around 2030. Against such background, this paper adopts an approach, which combines production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) and index decomposition analysis (IDA). In the approach, this study adds two important pre-defined factors, i.e. GDP technical efficiency and GDP technology change. Furthermore, this study provides detailed information regarding the potential forces driving carbon dioxide emissions across provinces in China. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, economic activity is the dominant contributor to substantial increases in carbon dioxide emissions. GDP technology change and potential energy intensity change have considerable effects on carbon dioxide emissions in most provinces. Secondly, there are mixed results at provincial level, including several drixiing factors and the potential of carbon intensity improvements. In this regard, detailed information about provincial variations is quite important for policy makers in provincial governments. Finally, there are 9 provinces with large potential of carbon intensity improvements. Looking ahead, the local governments should adopt effective measures to promote "catching up". (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.