Evaluation of GPS orbit prediction strategies for the IGS Ultra-rapid products

The International GNSS Service (IGS) provides Ultra-rapid GPS & GLONASS orbits every 6 h. Each product is composed of 24 h of observed orbits with predicted orbits for the next 24 h. We have studied how the orbit prediction performance varies as a function of the arc length of the fitted observed orbits and the parameterization strategy used to estimate the empirical solar radiation pressure (SRP) effects. To focus on the dynamical aspects of the problem, nearly ideal conditions have been adopted by using IGS Rapid orbits and known earth rotation parameters (ERPs) as observations. Performance was gauged by comparison with Rapid orbits as truth by examining WRMS and median orbit differences over the first 6-h and the full 24-h prediction intervals, as well as the stability of the Helmert frame alignment parameters. Two versions of the extended SRP orbit model developed by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) were tested. Adjusting all nine SRPs (offsets plus once-per-revolution sines and cosines in each satellite-centered frame direction) for each satellite shows smaller mean sub-daily, scale, and origin translation differences. On the other hand, eliminating the four once-per-revolution SRP parameters in the sun-ward and the solar panel axis directions yields orbit predictions that are much more rotationally stable. We found that observed arc lengths of 40-45 h produce the most stable and accurate predictions during 2010. A combined strategy of rotationally aligning the 9 SRP results to the 5 SRP frame should give optimal predictions with about 13 mm mean WRMS residuals over the first 6 h and 50 mm over 24 h. Actual Ultra-rapid performance will be degraded due to the unavoidable rotational errors from ERP predictions.