On the spatial pattern of the distribution of the tsunami run-up heights

被引:5
|
作者
Cho, Yong-Sik [1 ]
Kim, Yong Cheol [1 ]
Kim, Dongkyun [2 ]
机构
[1] Hanyang Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul 133791, South Korea
[2] Hongik Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Seoul 121791, South Korea
关键词
Probability; Tsunami run-up height; Probability plot correlation coefficient test; Log-normal distribution; Normal distribution; CORRELATION-COEFFICIENT TEST; GOODNESS-OF-FIT; PROBABILITY; EQUATIONS;
D O I
10.1007/s00477-012-0669-7
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This study suggests the map representing the best-fit distribution of the tsunami run-up height time series. To obtain the map, the tsunami numerical simulations corresponding to the 11 different causative undersea earthquake were firstly performed. Then, the best-fit distribution representing the tsunami run-up height values for each modeling in-land grid point was determined using the probability plot correlation coefficient test. Then, the probability that the tsunami run-up height exceeding a 30 cm was estimated using the fitted distribution for each of the modeling grid point. Finally, the map of the best-fit distribution was produced based on the maximum exceedance probability out of the total 11 simulations. The log-normal distribution represents the distribution of the tsunami run-up heights for the wide area of the back of the quay while the normal distribution does the same along the coast line. The Gumbel and exponential distribution did not show a specific spatial pattern but were sparsely located. In addition, the map representing the probability that the tsunami run-up height exceeds a given criterion depth (30 cm) was created. We expect these two maps help the disaster managers and policy makers in making more precise decisions while placing and designing coastal structures by providing important information regarding the risk of the tsunami attack from statistical and temporal perspective.
引用
收藏
页码:1333 / 1346
页数:14
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