An integrated biochemical prediction model of all-cause mortality in patients undergoing lower extremity bypass surgery for advanced peripheral artery disease

Background: Patients with advanced peripheral artery disease (PAD) have a high prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and shortened life expectancy. However, CV risk factors poorly predict midterm (<5 years) mortality in this population. This study tested the hypothesis that baseline biochemical parameters would add clinically meaningful predictive information in patients undergoing lower extremity bypass operations. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with clinically advanced PAD undergoing lower extremity bypass surgery. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the main outcome of all-cause mortality. A clinical model was constructed with known CV risk factors, and the incremental value of the addition of clinical chemistry, lipid assessment, and a panel of 11 inflammatory parameters was investigated using the C statistic, the integrated discrimination improvement index, and Akaike information criterion. Results: The study monitored 225 patients for a median of 893 days (interquartile range, 539-1315 days). In this study, 50 patients (22.22%) died during the follow-up period. By life-table analysis (expressed as percent surviving +/- standard error), survival at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, respectively, was 90.5% +/- 1.9%, 83.4% +/- 2.5%, 77.5% +/- 3.1%, 71.0% +/- 3.8%, and 65.3% +/- 6.5%. Compared with survivors, decedents were older, diabetic, had extant coronary artery disease, and were more likely to present with critical limb ischemia as their indication for bypass surgery (P < .05). After adjustment for the above, clinical chemistry and inflammatory parameters significant (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) for all-cause mortality were albumin (0.43 [0.26-0.71]; P = .001), estimated glomerular filtration rate (0.98 [0.97-0.99]; P = .023), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP; 3.21 [1.21-8.55]; P = .019), and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule (1.74 [1.04-2.91]; P = .034). Of the inflammatory molecules investigated, hsCRP proved most robust and representative of the integrated inflammatory response. Albumin, eGFR, and hsCRP improved the C statistic and integrated discrimination improvement index beyond that of the clinical model and produced a final C statistic of 0.82. Conclusions: A risk prediction model including traditional risk factors and parameters of inflammation, renal function, and nutrition had excellent discriminatory ability in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with clinically advanced PAD undergoing bypass surgery. (J Vasc Surg 2012;56:686-95.)