Current and future potential distribution and identification of suitable areas for the conservation of Cedrela odorata L. in the Yucatan Peninsula

Introduction: Red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) is appreciated for its wood, a situation that has caused poor forest management and, therefore, a decrease in its areas of distribution. Objective: To delimit the current and future potential distribution of C. odorata and to identify suitable seed-producing areas for the conservation of the species in the Yucatan Peninsula. Materials and methods: Records of the presence of C. odorata were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), the National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS in Spanish) and the book "Arboles tropicales de Mexico". The modeling was done in MaxEnt using current environmental variables and future (2030) climate change scenarios at 1 km 2 spatial resolution. Seventy-five percent of the records were used to train the models and 25 percent to validate them. The variables with the greatest contribution were determined by the jackknife test. Results and discussion: The estimated current potential distribution of C. odorata was 404 917 ha. Climate change simulations predict a reduction (31 to 44.8 %) of the suitable habitat, where the natural protected areas (ANPs) of Calakmul, Los Petenes and Ria Celestim would serve as climate refuges, conserving about 76 472 ha. The important variables in the distribution were: vegetation (34.7 %), precipitation of the wettest month (14.6 %), edaphology (8.8 %), average temperature of the coldest quarter (8.6 %) and slope (7 %). Conclusion: The models allowed the identification of suitable areas with habitat quality of C. odorata. In view of the threats of climate change, the distribution of C. odorata in ANPs would help conservation and restoration programs in situ.