First-Order Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Safety in Highway Horizontal Curves

This study presents a reliability analysis of vehicle sideslip and rollover in highway horizontal curves, mainly focusing on exit ramps and interchanges. To accurately describe failure modes of a ground vehicle, analytic models for sideslip and rollover are derived considering nonlinear characteristics of vehicle behavior using the commercial software, TruckSim (R), with high fidelity. Then, the probability of accident is evaluated using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). Furthermore, sensitivity functions of each failure mode are analytically derived to apply FORM. Numerical studies are conducted using a single-unit truck model. The results show that a truck is more likely to rollover than to slip at dry load. To propose practical application of the study, the reliability analysis for the minimum radius recommended by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) at various speeds and bank angles is conducted. The reliability analysis of current design method shows that the method cannot provide the sufficient margin of safety against both of rollover and sideslip when there are deviations from assumed conditions, especially at low speed of vehicles.