Models of the predictability of a simple nonlinear dynamical system

被引：6
|
作者：
James, I. N. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
来源：
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2002年 / 3卷 / 2-4期
关键词：
Chaos; predictability; low order system;
D O I：
10.1006/asle.2002.0099
中图分类号：
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号：
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要：
Chaotic nonlinear low order systems are often regarded as paradigms of the atmospheric behaviour, not least because of their limited predictability. In this paper, the predictability of a forced nonlinear system proposed by Lorenz is examined. The system is a compelling heuristic model of the mid-latitude global circulation; it exhibits limited predictability. While weak error growth takes place throughout most of the phase of the system, strong error growth is confined to very limited regions of phase space. A "discrete scattering" model of error growth is proposed. (C) 2002 Royal Meterological Society
引用
收藏
页码：42 / 51
页数：10
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