A Predictive Model of Subcutaneous Glucose Concentration in Type 1 Diabetes Based on Random Forests

In this study, an individualized predictive model of the subcutaneous glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes is presented, which relies on the Random Forests regression technique. A multivariate dataset is utilized concerning the s.c. glucose profile, the plasma insulin concentration, the intestinal absorption of meal-derived glucose and the daily energy expenditure. In an attempt to capture daily rhythms in glucose metabolism, we also introduce a time feature in the predictive analysis. The dataset comes from the continuous multi-day recordings of 27 type 1 patients in free-living conditions. Evaluating the performance of the proposed method by 10-fold cross validation, an average RMSE of 6.60, 8.15, 9.25 and 10.83 mg/dl for 15, 30, 60 and 120 min prediction horizons, respectively, was attained.