Economic Evaluation of Regulatory Tariff Risk Planning for an Electric Power Company

Regulatory energy tariff revision planning conducted by the Brazilian regulatory agency ANEEL is based on the electric power company's accrued costs during the previous tariff revision cycle and the gain in productivity seen during this same period. However, this planning considers purely deterministic variables, which in practice are known for presenting a certain degree of uncertainty. This article uses the TAROT (optimized tariff economic model) socioeconomic model to simulate the tariff revision process of a regulated electric power company and considers a selection of important stochastic variables for the revision process, such as consumer energy consumption, the purchased energy cost from the generator and commercial energy losses. Therefore, a risk study will be conducted to present a methodology for calculating and determining the regulatory tariff of companies under risk conditions, which is designed to assist ANEEL in regulating the electric power sector.