Detecting Climate Effects on Vegetation in Northern Mixed Prairie Using NOAA AVHRR 1-km Time-Series NDVI Data

Grasslands hold varied grazing capacity, provide multiple habitats for diverse wildlife, and are a key component of carbon stock. Research has indicated that grasslands are experiencing effects related to recent climate trends. Understanding how grasslands respond to climate variation thus is essential. However, it is difficult to separate the effects of climate variation from grazing. This study aims to document vegetation condition under climate variation in Grasslands National Park (GNP) of Canada, a grassland ecosystem without grazing for over 20 years, using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to establish vegetation baselines. The main findings are (1) precipitation has more effects than temperature on vegetation; (2) the growing season of vegetation had an expanding trend indicated by earlier green-up and later senescence; (3) phenologically-tuned annual NDVI had an increasing trend from 1985 to 2007; and (4) the baselines of annual NDVI range from 0.13 to 0.32, and only the NDVI in 1999 is beyond the upper bound of the baseline. Our results indicate that vegetation phenology and condition have slightly changed in GNP since 1985, although vegetation condition in most years was still within the baselines.