Data-driven predictions in the science of science

被引:162
作者
Clauset, Aaron [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Larremore, Daniel B. [3 ]
Sinatra, Roberta [4 ,5 ,6 ,7 ]
机构
[1] Univ Colorado, Dept Comp Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[2] Univ Colorado, BioFrontiers Inst, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[3] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA
[4] Cent European Univ, Ctr Network Sci, Budapest, Hungary
[5] Cent European Univ, Dept Math, Budapest, Hungary
[6] Northeastern Univ, Ctr Complex Network Res, Boston, MA 02115 USA
[7] Northeastern Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
SLEEPING BEAUTIES; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1126/science.aal4217
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The desire to predict discoveries-to have some idea, in advance, of what will be discovered, by whom, when, and where-pervades nearly all aspects of modern science, from individual scientists to publishers, from funding agencies to hiring committees. In this Essay, we survey the emerging and interdisciplinary field of the "science of science" and what it teaches us about the predictability of scientific discovery. We then discuss future opportunities for improving predictions derived from the science of science and its potential impact, positive and negative, on the scientific community.
引用
收藏
页码:477 / 480
页数:4
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