Airspace Congestion Risk Management Decision Making Model and Methodology

With the increase of the air traffic flow, there are still no effect decision making mechanisms of risk managementdeveloped for airspace congestion. In this paper, an airspace congestion prediction model and a risk losing cost model are established. The first model is used to forecast the time intervals in which the congestionoccurs in certain airspace. Then, the air traffic flow management (ATFM) strategies are performed, and the performance costs of such strategies are calculated based on the second model. Through the airspace congestion risk management decision making methodology, the performance costs are compared to choose the optimal performing time of the ATFM strategy. Based on the practical operation data, the establised model and methodology can effectively predict the time of the airspace congestion, and rapidly find out the optimal timing point of the ATFM strategy.