The Forecasting of China's Energy Consumption

This paper makes a prediction of China's energy consumption in 2015. The assumption in this paper is established as that urbanization, industrial GDP and energy pricing indices are independent variables. With this hypothesis we select time as a single independent variable to make forecasting of these variables. In the paper, we firstly predict these variables with time series method and the tool of regression. Then putting the forecasting results of these variables into energy forecasting model, also built on the above assumption and method, we can predict energy consumption will reach to 1771.99Mtce. Moreover, with the technology development, the energy intensity in China has dropped down for a period of time. Considering this trend and effect, the quantity of energy consumption will reduce to 1485.79Mtce.