Climate change effects on denitrification performance of woodchip bioreactors treating agricultural tile drainage

Denitrifying woodchip bioreactors (WBRs) are a nature-based technology that are increasingly used to control nonpoint source nitrate (NO3 ) pollution in agricultural catchments. The treatment effectiveness of WBRs depends on temperature and hydraulic retention time (HRT), both of which are affected by climate change. Warmer temperatures will increase microbial denitrification rates, but the extent to which the resulting benefits to treatment performance may be offset by intensified precipitation and shorter HRTs is not clear. Here, we use three years of monitoring data from a WBR in Central New York State to train an integrated hydrologicbiokinetic model describing links among temperature, precipitation, bioreactor discharge, denitrification kinetics, and NO3  removal efficiencies. Effects of climate warming are assessed by first training a stochastic weather generator with eleven years of weather data from our field site, and then adjusting the distribution of precipitation intensities according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between water vapor and temperature. Modeling results indicate, in our system, faster denitrification rates will outweigh the influence of intensified precipitation and discharge under warming, leading to net improvements in NO3  load reductions. Median cumulative NO3  load reductions at our study site from May October are projected to increase from 21.7% (interquartile range 17.4%-26.1%) under baseline hydro-climate to 41.0% (interquartile range 32.6-47.1%) with a + 4 degrees C change in mean air temperature. This improved performance under climate warming is driven by strong nonlinear dependence of NO3  removal rates on temperature. Temperature sensitivity may increase with woodchip age and lead to stronger temperature-response in systems like this one with a highly aged woodchip matrix. While the impacts of hydro-climatic change on WBR performance will depend on site-specific properties, this hydrologic-biokinetic modeling approach provides a framework for assessing climate impacts on the effectiveness of WBRs and other denitrifying nature-based systems.