Strategies for Industrial Structure Adjustment to Achieve Near-Optimal Trade-Off Between Gross Domestic Product and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

To cope with the potential threat caused by climate change, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which are mainly derived from fossil fuels, is the top priority in curbing global warming. Taiwan claims that its target for intended nationally determined contribution is to achieve a 50% reduction in the level of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, which is equivalent to a decrease in emissions by 20% compared to the 2005 level. To reach the intended nationally determined contribution target for 2030, planning a long-term project is necessary. Therefore, the study proposes a multi-objective optimization model to program the industrial structure of Taiwan from 2022 to 2030 for a near-optimal trade-off between gross domestic product and CO2 emissions. The results indicate that industries with high emission rates, such as the chemical material and primary metal industries, must impose actions to significantly reduce emissions. In addition, high energy-intensive industries should not expand their scales to maintain sustainable development. On the contrary, the electrical machinery industry should be further developed. The findings can provide helpful information for policymakers and serve as a reference for future industrial development in Taiwan.