Cleaning up while Changing Gears: The Role of Battery Design, Fossil Fuel Power Plants, and Vehicle Policy for Reducing Emissions in the Transition to Electric Vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can reduce air emissions when charged with clean power, but prior work estimated that in 2010, PEVs produced 2 to 3 times the consequential air emission externalities of gasoline vehicles in PJM (the largest US regional transmission operator, serving 65 million people) due largely to increased generation from coal-fired power plants to charge the vehicles. We investigate how this situation has changed since 2010, where we are now, and what the largest levers are for reducing PEV consequential life cycle emission externalities in the near future. We estimate that PEV emission externalities have dropped by 17% to 18% in PJM as natural gas replaced coal, but they will remain comparable to gasoline vehicle externalities in base case trajectories through at least 2035. Increased wind and solar power capacity is critical to achieving deep decarbonization in the long run, but through 2035 we estimate that it will primarily shift which fossil generators operate on the margin at times when PEVs charge and can even increase consequential PEV charging emissions in the near term. We find that the largest levers for reducing PEV emissions over the next decade are (1) shifting away from nickel-based batteries to lithium iron phosphate, (2) reducing emissions from fossil generators, and (3) revising vehicle fleet emission standards. While our numerical estimates are regionally specific, key findings apply to most power systems today, in which renewable generators typically produce as much output as possible, regardless of the load, while dispatchable fossil fuel generators respond to the changes in load.