Predicting ICU Pressure Injuries with Historical Data: A Multivariate Time Series Approach

Hospital-acquired pressure injury (HAPI) is a serious healthcare problem for intensive care unit (ICU) patients, which significantly affects their quality of life and prognosis, and increases hospitalization time and medical expenses. The current prediction models cannot accurately predict the pressure injury (PI) in ICU wards, as these models usually only predict based on the patient's current physical condition and electronic health record data, resulting in poor recall and precision, which affects the prediction performance. To solve this problem, we applied the multivariate time series data of ICU patients from admission to discharge and established a PI prediction model for ICU patients by utilizing the bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) model. Experiments on the MIMIC-III (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care) dataset show that the Bi-LSTM model has an F1 score of 0.24 and an AUC (Area Under Curve) value of 0.81, which are better than other models. This validates the effectiveness of the Bi-LSTM on the multivariate time series data to predict the occurrence of PI in ICU wards and assist nursing staff to allocate nursing resources more effectively.