Resilient banking: model-based assessment of business continuity policies on commercial banks

PurposeCommercial banks face several risks, including credit, liquidity, operational and disruptive risks. In addition to these risks that are challenging for banks to control and manage, crises and disasters can exert substantially more destructive shocks. These shocks can exacerbate internal risks and cause severe damage to the bank's performance, leading banks to bankruptcy and closure. This study aims to facilitate achieving resilient banking policies through a model-based assessment of business continuity management (BCM) policies.Design/methodology/approachBy applying a system dynamics (SD) methodology, a systemic model that includes a causal structure of the banking business is presented. To build a simulation model, data are collected from a commercial bank in Iran. By presenting the simulation model of the bank's business, the consequences of some given crises on the bank's performance are tested, and the effectiveness of risk and crisis management policies is evaluated. Vensim Personal Learning Edition (PLE) software is used to construct the simulation model.FindingsResults indicate that the current BCM policies do not show appropriate resilience in the face of various crises. Commercial banks cannot create sustainable value for the banks' shareholders despite the possibility of profitability, as the shareholders lack adequate resilience and soundness. These commercial banks do not have the appropriate resilience for the next pandemic after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Moreover, the robustness of the current banking business model is very fragile for the banking run crisis.Practical implicationsA forward-looking view of resilient banking can be obtained by combining liquidity coverage, stable funding, capital adequacy and insights from stress tests. Resilient banking requires a balanced combination of robustness, soundness and profitability.Originality/valueThe present study is a combination of bank business management, risk and resilience management and SD simulation. This approach can analyze and simulate the dynamics of bank resilience. Additionally, present of a decision support system (DSS) to analyze and simulate the outcomes of different crisis management policies and solutions is an innovative approach to developing effective and resilient banking policies.