Habitat quality evolution characteristics and multi-scenario prediction in Shenzhen based on PLUS and InVEST models

Based on the PLUS model, research proposed a method to adjust the probability of land use transition to reduce the calculation error of the number of pixels. The refined algorithm is applied to simulate Shenzhen land use situation in 2030 under a progressive scenario using three periods of Shenzhen land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020. Then, InVEST model was employed to evaluate the distribution situation and future trends of habitat quality in Shenzhen during the study period. Following are the conclusions: 1) The construction land in Shenzhen expanded rapidly and the ecological land gradually shrank during the research period. The proportion of artificial surface area increased by about 45.4% (304.98 km(2)) within 20 years. 2) By simulating the land use situation of Shenzhen in 2030, the results revealed that the land use change of Shenzhen in the future is mainly concentrated in the central and western regions. 3) The overall average habitat quality of Shenzhen was at a medium level, but the habitat quality showed a continuous degradation trend in each year throughout the study period. Spatially, the habitat quality degradation are mainly concentrated in Shenzhen's central and western region. 4) Under the natural development scenario, Shenzhen's habitat quality would experience a sharp decline by 2030. The habitat quality of the conservation area is guaranteed to a certain degree, but the artificial surface expansion outside the area will still affect the habitat quality in the boundary constraint scenario; Only in scenario of ecological priority, the habitat quality of Shenzhen has been restored and improved to a large extent. 5) In order to slow down the degradation trend and improve the regional ecological environment. It is necessary not only to strictly implement various protection boundaries delineated in the context of Territorial Spatial Planning, but also to implement the policy of "Clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver " in the process of urban development. Government should reasonably control the scale of cities, optimize the ecological compensation mechanism, and implement ecological restoration policies such as returning farmland to forests and returning farmland to grassland.