Evaluation and projection of precipitation extremes under 1.5°C and 2.0°C GWLs over China using bias-corrected CMIP6 models

被引：9
|
作者：
Guo, Junhong [1 ]
Shen, Yangshuo [2 ]
Wang, Xiuquan [3 ]
Liang, Xi [4 ]
Liu, Zhenlu [1 ]
Liu, Lvliu [5 ]
机构：
[1] North China Elect Power Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, MOE Key Lab Resource & Environm, Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
[2] North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Prince Edward Isl, Sch Climate Change & Adaptat, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada
[4] UCL, Bartlett Sch Sustainable Construct, Sustainable Finance & Infrastruct Transit, London WC1E 6BT, England
[5] China Meteorol Adm, Beijing Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
来源：
ISCIENCE | 2023年 / 26卷 / 04期
关键词：
DEGREES-C; CLIMATE EXTREMES; FUTURE CHANGES; TEMPERATURE; IMPACTS;
D O I：
10.1016/j.isci.2023.106179
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
China is facing an increasing challenge from severe precipitation-related extremes with accelerating global warming. In this study, using a bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble, future responses of precipitation extreme indices at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming levels (GWLs) under the SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios are investigated. Despite different change magnitudes, extreme precipitation events will be more frequent and more intense over China as a whole under higher emissions and GWLs. The increase in annual total precipitation could attribute to a sharp increase in the intensity and days of very heavy precipitation in future global warming scenarios. Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C and low emission pathways (i.e., SSP245) instead of 2 degrees C and high emission pathways (i.e., SSP585) would have substantial benefits for China in terms of reducing occurrences of extreme precipitation events.
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收藏
页数：20
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