DISTRIBUTION OF FROBENIUS ELEMENTS IN FAMILIES OF GALOIS EXTENSIONS

Given a Galois extension L/K of number fields, we describe fine distribution properties of Frobenius elements via invariants from representations of finite Galois groups and ramification theory. We exhibit explicit families of extensions in which we evaluate these invariants and deduce a detailed understanding and a precise description of the possible asymmetries. We establish a general bound on the generic fluctuations of the error term in the Chebotarev density theorem, which under GRH is sharper than the Murty-Murty-Saradha and Bellaiche refinements of the Lagarias-Odlyzko and Serre bounds, and which we believe is best possible (assuming simplicity, it is of the quality of Montgomery's conjecture on primes in arithmetic progressions). Under GRH and a hypothesis on the multiplicities of zeros up to a certain height, we show that in certain families, these fluctuations are dominated by a constant lower order term. As an application of our ideas, we refine and generalize results of K. Murty and of Bellaiche, and we answer a question of Ng. In particular, in the case where L/Q is Galois and supersolvable, we prove a strong form of a conjecture of K. Murty on the unramified prime ideal of least norm in a given Frobenius set. The tools we use include the Rubinstein-Sarnak machinery based on limiting distributions and a blend of algebraic, analytic, representation theoretic, probabilistic and combinatorial techniques.