THE SAHM RULE AND PREDICTING THE GREAT RECESSION ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES

被引：3

作者：

Blanchflower, David G. ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
,5
]}

Bryson, Alex ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

机构：

[1] Dartmouth Coll, Dept Econ, Hanover, NH 03755 USA

[2] Univ Glasgow, Adam Smith Business Sch, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland

[3] GLO, Essen, Germany

[4] Bloomberg, New York, NY USA

[5] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[6] UCL, Social Res Inst, London, England

[7] NIESR, London, England

[8] IZA, Bonn, Germany

来源：

NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2023年 / 264卷

关键词：

Great Recession; business cycles; turning points; Sahm Rule; fear of unemployment; UNEMPLOYMENT; FEAR;

D O I：

10.1017/nie.2021.47

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.

引用

页码：8 / 58

页数：51

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