Analysis for End-of-Life Solar Panel Generations by Renewable Energy Supply towards Carbon Neutrality in South Korea

When solar panels reach end-of-life, the disposal of solar panel waste is an issue of concern because it creates environmental pollution if it is improperly disposed of. It is expected that such waste will probably be increasing as the widespread use of renewable energy is adopted by taking measures associated with carbon neutrality. Thus, accurate prediction of solar panel waste with future demands for renewable energy is urgently needed for sustainable waste management. This study examined the amounts of solar panels to be retried by 2050 under three scenarios (S1-BAU, S2, S3). The amounts of solar panels to be retired are estimated by using the PBM (population balance model) with the Weibull distribution. According to the carbon neutral scenario (S3), the total amounts of solar panels to be retired are anticipated to be around 172 kt in 2030, 932 kt in 2040, and 3146 kt in 2050. The total volume of retired solar panels was projected to be 168 kt in 2030, 820 kt in 2040, and 2331 kt in 2050 under the government-led scenario (S2). The average recovery of end-of-life solar panels produced by the three scenarios in 2050 is 1531 kt, 337 kt, 535 kt, and 22 kt for glass, aluminum, silicon, and copper, respectively. Economic benefits by resource recovery of retired solar panels in 2050 range from $25.6 million in S1 to $519.1 million in S3. Based on the sensitivity analysis with the weight of solar panel (5% and 10% reduction), the results indicated that the annual volumes of retired solar panels mostly fell within the range of 4.9% to 10.0% in 2050. To confirm the predicted volumes of retired solar panels in this study, a further study is warranted because they can be influenced by other factors (e.g., weight, technology development, early loss rate, or reuse and recycling options).