Changes in the Polish Coal Sector Economic Situation with the Background of the European Union Energy Security and Eco-Efficiency Policy

Poland is a big user of fossil fuels for electricity and heat production. The most important fossil fuel is hard, brown coal and the Polish energy system is based on this source. However, the world has begun to decarbonize the climate and reduce the carbon dioxide and methane which are the main gasses impacting climate change. The main aim of this paper was to recognize changes in Polish coal sector. We focused our attention to the economic situation and employment in coal sector in Poland. The time rage included 1989-2020 and the prognosis 2021-2025. The Polish coal sector faced dramatic changes. The number of hard coal mines decreased from 70 in 1990 to 21 in 2020. In the same timeframe, the prices for hard coal increased from 12.37 PLN/dt to 313.27 PLN/dt. The employment decreased from more than 350 thousand to less than 100 thousand people in hard coal mines. The decrease changes are the effect of strict policies of the European Union. The economic situation of Polish hard coal mines is rather poor. Polish mines achieved negative economic results due to the effect of poor management. We used advanced statistics, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), to measure the stationarity of analyzed time series. We also used Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and conducted a prognosis. Our research proved that the time series describing the hard coal economic situation were not stationary. The Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models confirmed big changes in Polish coal sector economic results. The elaborated prognosis of variables proved that the price of hard coal will increase in 2021-2025. Moreover, the economic situation will be worse. Our analysis confirmed that global trends of the hard coal sector were influenced by the European Union (EU) energy policy and closing down the mines. The economic situation of Polish hard coal sector worsened.