Health insurance coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of Medicaid expansion

Using data from the US Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, we analyzed the likelihood of loss of health insurance and enrollment into new health coverage during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of employment was associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of loss of health insurance and, specifically, an increase in the likelihood of employer-sponsored health insurance. However, individuals in Medicaid expansion states experienced a lower likelihood of loss of health insurance compared with individuals in nonexpansion states. At the same time, there was a statistically significant increase in Medicaid enrollment in expansion states, by 3.2 percentage points. Reemployment or acquiring employment was associated with a gain in health insurance coverage. During an economic downturn, eligibility, and coverage gaps leave many without affordable coverage options, and the pandemic will likely bring renewed attention to gaps in Medicaid coverage in nonexpansion states.