Lightning and Forest Fires under Modern Climatic Conditions of Central Siberia

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of forest fires and their causes in the forest areas of Central Siberia in 1987-2020. An increase in the share of fires from lightning discharges has been recorded (R-2 =0.78, p < 0.05). A spatiotemporal extrapolation of long-term meteorological data series has been performed. An increase in thunderstorm activity by at least 30% relative to the average annual norm for the end of the 20th century has been revealed for the entire territory of Central Siberia. It is shown that if current trends are maintained until 2100, the number of lightning discharges during the fire season (March-September) will determine up to 10-40% increase in the number of fires caused by lightning. Thunderstorm activity can be one of the significant factors in the toughening of fire regimes in Central Siberia.