Identifying the optimization potential for urban GI by linking supply and demand of ecosystem services under multi-scenarios : a case study of Tianjin, China

Quantitative research on the supply and demand of urban green infrastructure (GI) ecosystem services (ES) can play a crucial role in supporting ecological governance, which is vital for enhancing the health and well-being of residents and promoting sustainable development. However, current supply and demand studies often fail to consider the complexity and diversity of local climates and economic status, leading to suboptimal outcomes in urban greening programs. Therefore, there is an urgent need to incorporate the diversity and variability of demand for ES in decision-making processes for urban GI planning. To address this issue, this study proposes a multi-development scenario-based supply and demand modelling framework that measures the supply and demand of ES. By using the central city of Tianjin, China, as a case study, the resulting GI construction potential zoning and optimization strategies are determined to achieve the multiple environmental-social-economic benefits of GI. The results show that the supply and demand levels of GI in the study area are significantly spatially heterogeneous, with the demand levels of GI varying considerably under different development scenarios. Furthermore, the demand for GI is highest under the ecological priority scenario. Based on the relationship between the supply and demand of ES, the study area is classified into four zones, including a GI supply deficit zone, a supply surplus zone, a low-level balance zone, and a high-level balance zone. The area of each zone decreases in turn, indicating that the study area as a whole is in a state of mismatch between the supply and demand of ES. Finally, the study area is divided into seven GI construction potential zones based on the degree of scarcity and development orientation. The proposed planning scheme helps to achieve dynamic matching goals of ES supply and demand and provides valuable insights for policymakers to coordinate urban resources and promote sustainable development.