Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Universal Screening for Biliary Atresia in Japan

Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal newborn screening using stool color card or direct bili-rubin (DB) testing when comparing with no screening for biliary atresia in Japanese setting. Study design A decision analytic Markov microsimulation model was developed to evaluate the universal screening for biliary atresia. Our screening strategies included stool color card, DB, or no screening. The outcomes of all newborns undergoing 3 strategies were simulated to analyze event-free life-years defined as liver transplant-free survival, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 25-year period with an annual discount rate of 2% applied for both costs and outcomes. A 1-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the uncertainty. Results There were 941 000 newborn infants in our cohort and 114 cases of biliary atresia. The base case analysis showed that the stool color card strategy was $14 927 337 higher than no screening with an increase in 44 more event-free life-years gained, resulting in an ICER of $339258 per event-free life-year gained. The DB screening strategy compared with stool color card was $138 994 060 higher with an increase in 271 more event-free life-years gained and an ICER of $512 893 per event-free life-year gained. The DB screening strategy compared with no screening resulted in an ICER of $488 639 per event-free life-year gained. The DB screening resulted in 16 fewer liver transplants than stool color card and stool color card had 2 fewer liver transplants than no screening. Conclusions Universal screening for biliary atresia could be cost-effective depending on the willingness to pay thresholds for health benefits.