The relationship between ecology and economy in German public opinion, 1984-2019

Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984-2019, this article investigates how changes in environmental concern are associated with changes in general and personal economic conditions. It examines the hypothesis of a trade-off between ecology and economy, i.e., that public concern about the environment increases under favorable economic circumstances, but erodes during unfavorable ones. On the aggregate level, trend analyses with yearly cross-sections of the data mainly support this trade-off hypothesis. On the individual level, analyses of the data with fixed-effects panel regression models yield similar, but more complex results - including contradictory findings. In addition to the trade-off hypothesis, our analyses confirm the more special hypothesis that the link between ecology and economy in public opinion has become weaker over time. This weakened relationship tends to create new opportunities for environmental politics because many citizens no longer follow the argument that 'it hurts the economy.'