Comparative Analysis of Trade's Impact on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China and the United States

Accelerating economic globalization is a major driver of the transfer of embodied pollutant emissions from trade. China and the United States are currently the largest importers and exporters of agricultural products, respectively, and are also major producers and consumers of these products. This paper aims to analyze and compare the patterns of embodied agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) in the two countries, which is crucial for understanding how trade influences the transfer of such emissions. In this study, we calculated the embodied ACE of China and the United States from the perspectives of production and consumption for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2016 by establishing a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. Additionally, we employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method to analyze the driving factors behind the changes in embodied ACE over time. The findings indicated that the embodied ACE associated with imports and exports in China and the United States followed a pattern of increase and subsequent decrease during the period 1970-2016, with net imports escalating from -18.79 million tons and -3.62 million tons to 40.35 million tons and 51.22 million tons, respectively. This study identified two main factors contributing to the reduction in embodied ACE in both countries: the declining intensity of embodied ACE per unit of traded products and the diminishing proportion of the primary industry. The growth in GDP per capita, population expansion, and an increase in the proportion of agricultural products in international trade are predicted to promote an increase in embodied ACE imports and exports in both countries. This paper advocates for the reduction of embodied ACE through the continuous promotion of research and application of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, an optimized industrial structure, and the implementation of relevant energy-saving and emission-reduction policies.