Assessment of seasonal warming trends at the Nile Delta: a paradigm for human-induced climate change

Given its modern geographical and geomorphological characteristics, along with rapid socio-economic changes, the Nile Delta stands out as one of the world's most dynamic landscapes. The key drivers of the land use change in this region have been the reclamation of delta margins, changes in agricultural practices, and urban expansion. The present study aims to explore the variations in the seasonal daytime and nighttime trends of the land surface temperatures (LST) at this active agronomic system in response to the seasonal variations of vegetation cover as revealed by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the past two decades. The data were exclusively acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument for the period from January 2001 to December 2021, where geospatial and statistical analyses were accomplished to construct a LST/NDVI spatio-temporal pattern throughout the Nile Delta. Results revealed a robust negative and a significant relationship between the NDVI and the diurnal LST with high regression coefficients (R-2) ranging from 0.78 to 0.97 (p value < 0.05). Maximal seasonal warming trends occurred during harvesting seasons (springs and falls), while the least warming was recorded during winters (the growing seasons). It was also observed that the nocturnal warming (0.72 degrees C/decade) was almost as double as the corresponding value of the daytime trend (0.33 degrees C/decade). The study recognized a seasonal climatic warming throughout the Nile Delta influenced by the human-induced land use change and agricultural practices.