Complex affine arithmetic based uncertain sensitivity analysis of voltage fluctuations in active distribution networks

The uncertainties of distribution generations (DGs) and loads lead to severe voltage fluctuations in active distribution networks (ADNs). Meanwhile, energy storage systems (ESSs) and static var compensators (SVCs) can mitigate the uncertainties of power injections by regulating the active and reactive power. Considering the variations of multiple uncertain factors, this paper proposes a complex affine arithmetic (CAA) based uncertain sensitivity analysis method of voltage fluctuations in ADNs. First, affine models of active and reactive power injections are established. The correlations of noisy symbols are used to reflect the mitigation effects of ESSs and SVCs on the uncertainties introduced by DGs and loads. Next, sensitivity indicators of voltage fluctuations are defined based on the transitivity of noisy symbols. Then, a calculation method for sensitivity indicators based on the micro-increments of coefficients is proposed. Combined with the obtained indicators, a fast sensitivity method for calculating interval values of voltages is further proposed. The modified IEEE 33-bus system is tested to validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method by comparison with the continuous utilization of power flow method. Moreover, the 292-bus system is tested to validate its applicability in a large distribution system. Facts have proved that this method improves the efficiency and reliability of calculations, and in different scenarios, it can achieve fast calculation of nodes and online analysis of the voltage fluctuation range in uncertain environments, provides an effective tool for voltage quality management in active distribution networks.