A Bayesian-network approach for assessing the probability of success of physical security attacks to offshore Oil&Gas facilities

被引：11

作者：

Iaiani, Matteo ^{[1
]}

Tugnoli, Alessandro ^{[1
]}

Cozzani, Valerio ^{[1
]}

Reniers, Genserik ^{[2
]}

Yang, Ming ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Alma Mater Studiorum Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn, LISES, Via Terracini n 28, I-40131 Bologna, Italy

[2] Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy & Management, Safety & Secur Sci Sect, Delft, Netherlands

来源：

OCEAN ENGINEERING | 2023年 / 273卷

关键词：

Security; Security attack; OffshoreOil&Gas industry; Bayesian network; Security risk; Quantitative assessment; RISK-ASSESSMENT; SAFETY; VULNERABILITY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114010

中图分类号：

U6 [水路运输]; P75 [海洋工程];

学科分类号：

0814 ; 081505 ; 0824 ; 082401 ;

摘要：

Offshore Oil&Gas facilities are attractive targets of intentional malicious attacks (security attacks) that may trigger cascading events (e.g., the release and dispersion of hazardous material and/or energy, fires, explosions) with consequences on people, environment, and assets. The severity of these consequences is potentially similar to those arising from major accident scenarios originated by conventional safety-related causes. Current practice in managing the risk of security attacks mostly relies on qualitative or semi-quantitative procedures developed over the years in the offshore Oil&Gas industry. In the present study, a systematic quantitative procedure is developed, based on a Bayesian Network (BN) approach, for calculating the probability of success of physical security attacks, taking into account both preventive and mitigative security intervention strategies. The pro-cedure addresses the specific framework of the offshore Oil&Gas industry. A case study concerning an offshore fixed Oil&Gas platform allowed us to demonstrate the quality of the results that can be achieved and their potential towards the improvement of the security of the installations considered.

引用

页数：13