Urbanization as a limiter and catalyst of watershed-scale sediment transport: Insights from probabilistic connectivity modeling

The conversion of rural lands to urban areas exerts considerable influence on the hydrologic processes governing sediment transport at the watershed scale. While the effects of urbanization on hydrology have been well-studied, the corresponding impact to the spatial and temporal variability of sediment detachment, transport, and connectivity is less certain. To address this knowledge gap, we apply process-based hydrologic simulation, probabilistic connectivity modeling, and in situ turbidity sensing to five watersheds positioned along a steep land use gradient in Kansas, USA. Connectivity modeling results show that urbanization systematically decreases the maximal extent of watershed-scale connectivity on the wettest days of the study period, from 51 % in the most rural watershed to 28 % in the most urban watershed. On the other hand, urbanization focuses sediment transport into fewer, more frequently wetted pathways, such as roadway drainage networks, which are activated 3.5 times more frequently than the equivalent pathways in rural basins. In this way, urbanization limits maximal connectivity as impervious surfaces indefinitely disconnect source zones from the sediment cascade, but also catalyzes hot spots of connectivity as these same impervious areas generate excess runoff and channel it to drainage systems. The 23.9 & PLUSMN; 4.2 % of days that exhibit watershed-scale functional connectivity account for 85.0 & PLUSMN; 9.5 % of sediment export with most of the export tied to a few highly connected days. Sensing results show that increases in watershed-scale connectivity only translate to larger fluvial sediment loads after a connectivity threshold (the median connected day) has been exceeded, suggesting a transition from functional to structural connectivity control on sediment dynamics after sufficient wetting. This study highlights the role of land use impacts on the sources and mechanisms of sediment transport, which will be an important consideration for land managers as urban areas continue to expand to accommodate global migration patterns.