Examining the Threshold Effect of Environmental Regulation: The Impact of Agricultural Product Trade Openness on Agricultural Carbon Emissions

Agricultural product trade openness is a crucial factor impacting agricultural carbon emissions. This study analyzes the relationship between trade openness and carbon emissions in China. Using panel data from 2002 to 2020 for 31 provinces, a threshold panel model is employed to examine the non-linear relationship from an environmental regulation perspective. The findings reveal a significant single-threshold effect of environmental regulation. When environmental regulation intensity is low, trade openness is positively associated with agricultural carbon emissions. However, when environmental regulation intensity is high, trade openness significantly reduces carbon emissions. Regional regression analysis indicates that this single-threshold effect holds true in major grain-producing, grain-selling, and grain- producing- selling balance areas, although regional differences exist. This study emphasizes the need to coordinate environmental regulations and trade policies, strengthen environmental control, and leverage the threshold effect of environmental regulation in reducing carbon emissions through agricultural product trade openness.