Model-based analysis of future global transport demand

被引：3

作者：

Tjandra, Steffen ^{[1
,3
,4
]}

Kraus, Stefan ^{[1
,2
]}

Ishmam, Shitab ^{[1
,2
]}

Grube, Thomas ^{[1
]}

Linssen, Jochen ^{[1
]}

May, Johanna ^{[3
,4
]}

Stolten, Detlef ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Forschungszentrum Julich GmbH, Inst Techno Econ Syst Anal IEK 3, D-52425 Julich, Germany

[2] Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, Forschungszentrum Julich GmbH, Chair Fuel Cells, Inst Electrochem Proc Engn IEK 3, D-52428 Julich, Germany

[3] TH Koln Univ Appl Sci, Cologne Inst Renewable Energy CIRE, D-50678 Cologne, Germany

[4] TH Koln Univ Appl Sci, Inst Elect Power Engn IET, D-50678 Cologne, Germany

来源：

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES | 2024年 / 23卷

关键词：

Transport demand modeling; Global transport; Clustering; Elasticity approach; Passenger transport; Freight transport;

D O I：

10.1016/j.trip.2024.101016

中图分类号：

U [交通运输];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0823 ;

摘要：

Transport models are utilized to analyze the transition towards a low-carbon and sustainable future of transportation. Within these analyses, trends in transport demand serve as a crucial parameter. To address this, a cluster-based transport model was developed to estimate future global transport demand on a national level, encompassing both domestic and international transportation, extending until the year 2050. The transport demand was divided into passenger and freight, which were further split into road, rail, marine, and aviation sectors. According to the available transport-related data, the most influential factors on transport demand are gross domestic product per capita and urban population. Model results show an increase in the total passenger and freight transport demand to 183 trillion passenger-km and 395 trillion ton-km in 2050, respectively. This corresponds to a tripling of transport demand compared to 2020, primarily driven by the more significant rise in developing countries compared to developed ones.

引用

页数：16

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