A systematic review of dengue outbreak prediction models: Current scenario and future directions

Dengue is among the fastest-spreading vector-borne infectious disease, with outbreaks often overwhelm the health system and result in huge morbidity and mortality in its endemic populations in the absence of an efficient warning system. A large number of prediction models are currently in use globally. As such, this study aimed to systematically review the published literature that used quantitative models to predict dengue outbreaks and provide insights about the current practices. A systematic search was undertaken, using the Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus and Web of Science databases for published citations, without time or geographical restrictions. Study selection, data extraction and management process were devised in accordance with the 'Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies' ('CHARMS') framework. A total of 99 models were included in the review from 64 studies. Most models sourced climate (94.7%) and climate change (77.8%) data from agency reports and only 59.6% of the models adjusted for reporting time lag. All included models used climate predictors; 70.7% of them were built with only climate factors. Climate factors were used in combination with climate change factors (10.3%), both climate change and demographic factors (10.3%), vector factors (5.1%), and demographic factors (5.1%). Machine learning techniques were used for 39.4% of the models. Of these, random forest (15.4%), neural networks (23.1%) and ensemble models (10.3%) were notable. Among the statistical (60.6%) models, linear regression (18.3%), Poisson regression (18.3%), generalized additive models (16.7%) and time series/autoregressive models (26.7%) were notable. Around 20.2% of the models reported no validation at all and only 5.2% reported external validation. The reporting of methodology and model performance measures were inadequate in many of the existing prediction models. This review collates plausible predictors and methodological approaches, which will contribute to robust modelling in diverse settings and populations. Author summaryDengue is considered as a major public health challenge and a life-threatening disease affecting people worldwide. Over the past decades, numerous forecast models have been developed to predict dengue incidence using various factors based on different geographical locations. Dengue transmission appears to be highly sensitive to climate variability and change, however quantitative models used to assess the relationship between climate change and dengue often differ due to their distribution assumptions, the nature of the relationship and the spatial and/or temporal dynamics of the response. We performed a systematic review to examine current literature surrounding existing quantitative models based on development methodology, predictor variable used and model performance. Our analysis demonstrates several shortcomings in current modelling practice, and advocates for the use of real time primary predictor data, the incorporation of non-climatic parameters as predictors and more comprehensive reporting of model development techniques and validation.This review collates methodological approaches adopted in the modelling practices in the field across current literature. This will provide an evidence-based framework for upgrading future modelling practice to develop more accurate predictive models with robust techniques. In turn, this also provided an opportunity for the effective distribution of limited public health resources to prepare for demand.