Landscape Analysis and Ecological Risk Assessment during 1995-2020 Based on Land Utilization/Land Coverage (LULC) and Random Forest: A Case Study of the Fushun Open-Pit Coal Area in Liaoning, China

China's Fushun open-pit mine is the largest century-old coal mine in Asia. Large-scale mining and the use of coal has caused dramatic changes in the regional urban landscape pattern, seriously affecting the ecological function and ecosystem stability of its surrounding landscape. Evaluating the ecological risks of the landscape in the urban areas of open-pit mines contributes to the risk management of regional ecosystems and the sustainable development of society. This study selected six-phase Landsat ETM/OLI remote sensing images from 1995 to 2020 and combined them with the random forest model to carry out an LULC classification of the open-pit mine and its surrounding areas and, on this basis, discusses the evolution of its landscape pattern and evaluates the ecological risks. It fills the gap in the research on the evolution of regional landscape patterns and ecological risks in the study area and improves the automatic classification efficiency of LULC for use in open-pit mines. The results show that the classification accuracy of LULC regarding open-pit mines based on image pixels and the random forest model can reach 30 m, and the rate of accuracy can reach 92-97%. From 1995 to 2020, the coverage area of forest land and building land in the study area has increased and is mainly composed of grassland and undeveloped land. The use of land was transferred to the mining area, the water body area maintained a relative dynamic balance, and the overall vegetation coverage of the mining area was greatly improved; the forest land began to expand from the surrounding area to the mining area in 2010, and the construction land began to move from the areas surrounding the mining area to the surrounding valleys in 2015. The landforms have extended radially, and the landscape sprawl index has increased, indicating the optimization of the ecological environment; the high- and medium-risk areas decreased by 75.51 km2, the low-risk areas expanded by 461.48 km2, and the overall ecological risk index decreased. From this, it is possible to conclude that the landscape restoration project adopted in the study area has achieved great results, and the improvement of the ecological environment also directly affects the increase of construction land. These research results can provide scientific guidance for the rational utilization and sustainable development of land resources in urban areas of open-pit mines.