A 30-YEAR TREND OF THE INCIDENCE AND DEATH OF TRACHEAL, BRONCHIAL, AND LUNG CANCERS IN IRAN AND FORECASTING UNTIL 2026 BASED ON TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Objective: Lung cancer is the second most common cancer in the world, with an estimated 2.2 million new cases and 1.8 million deaths and is the fifth most common cancer in men and the sixth most common cancer in women in Iran. This study was conducted to investigate a 30-year trend of the incidence and death of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer in Iran and its forecasting until 2026. Materials and Methods: The Iranian population's age-standardized (ASR) incidence and death rates of tracheal, bronchial, and lung (TBL) cancers were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Online Database from 1990 to 2019. Statistical analysis was performed using the time series method with Interactive Time Series Modeling (ITSM) software and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.Results: The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of lung cancer in Iranians (both gender) had an increasing trend from 2004 to 2019 among men and from 1990 to 2019 in women with a continued predicted increasing trend for 7 years. ASIR will in-crease to 13.53, 17.36, and 9.26 per 100,000 people in the total population, men and women, respec-tively. ASDR will increase to 14.13, 18.18, and 9.22 per 100,000 people in the total population, men and women, respectively.Conclusions: In according to the predicted increasing trend of TBL cancers in Iran in the future, the reasons for the continuation of this increasing trend should be fully investigated, and then by using the experiences of successful countries in reducing lung cancer, effective measures should be considered to reduce the morbidity, mortality, and burden of these cancers in Iran.