Media, Public Opinion, and the ICC in the Russia-Ukraine War

This study, using content analysis and frame analysis, examines whether there is any connection between the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) announcement on the fifth day of Russia's war against Ukraine (which began on 24 February 2022) that it would investigate credible allegations of Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, and the reporting of the international press in those first five days. This study finds a functional relationship between the ICC's application of international law and international press reporting, in that the latter pursued an agenda grounded in the sources of international law. This reporting appeared to have made people think about the likelihood of Russia's war crimes in Ukraine (accessibility effect) and that Putin and his regime should be punished under international law (applicability effect). In turn, this was advantageous to the ICC's announcement that it would investigate allegations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. The speed of the ICC's decision to open this investigation opens questions as to what distinguished the situation in Ukraine from similar situations. Media reporting may have contributed to a broader rationale for potential realpolitik objectives concerning Ukraine and Russia, underpinned by laudable humanitarian and legal concerns. This study concludes that if power saturates law, then the media is a diffusing agent of that power-an actor that spreads and amplifies elite narratives into the public sphere, rationalising the actions of institutions like the ICC.