Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Iran: an Environmental Input-Output Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has had both direct and indirect impacts on the environment. One of the most significant effects of this pandemic has been the reduction in the utilization of natural resources, particularly fossil fuels, within Iran's major economic sectors. Given Iran's commitment to the Paris Agreement of 2015, it becomes crucial for policymakers and planners to assess the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly in the post-COVID-19 context, seen as a supply shock. This assessment aids in better formulating climate change policies in Iran. To estimate these variations, we have employed the Environmental Partial Hypothetical Extraction method to determine which economic activities have played the most significant role in reducing emissions after the removal of supply capacity and the extent to which they have contributed to GHG reduction, including carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). We utilized Iran's input-output table from 2016 to model three distinct lockdown scenarios: a low-risk scenario with a 50% reduction in production capacity, a medium-risk scenario with a 70% loss of supply capacity, and a high-risk scenario involving the complete cessation of activities. The findings of this study reveal that GHG emissions have decreased across all economic sectors in all scenarios, both in absolute and in relative terms. In terms of absolute results, the agriculture sector exhibits the most substantial reduction in CO2 emissions in the low-risk scenario, while the transportation sector leads in reducing N2O and CH4 emissions under the same scenario. In the medium-risk scenario, the industrial sector achieves the most significant reduction in CO2 emissions, whereas the transportation sector experiences the highest decrease in N2O emissions. In the high-risk scenario, the electricity sector demonstrates the greatest reduction in CO2 emissions, while the transportation sector sees the most significant reductions in N2O and CH4 emissions. In relative emission terms, the electricity sector stands out with a 98.6% reduction in N2O emissions.