Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Industrial Carbon Emission Efficiency and Their Impacts from Digital Economy at Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities

In the pursuit of China's dual carbon goals, identifying spatio-temporal changes in industrial carbon emission efficiency and their influencing factors in cities at different stages of development is the key to effective formulation of countermeasures to promote the low-carbon transformation of Chinese national industry and achieve high-quality economic development. In this study, we used balanced panel data of 270 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2020 as a research object: (1) to show spatio-temporal evolution patterns in urban industrial carbon emission efficiency; (2) to analyze the aggregation characteristics of industrial carbon emission efficiency in Chinese cities using Global Moran's I statistics; and (3) to use the hierarchical regression model for panel data to assess the non-linear impact of the digital economy on the industrial carbon emission efficiency of cities. The results show the following: (1) the industrial carbon emission efficiency of Chinese cities exhibited an upward trend from 2005 to 2020, with a spatial distribution pattern of high in the south and low in the north; (2) China's urban industrial carbon emission efficiency is characterized by significant spatial autocorrelation, with increasing and stabilizing correlation, and a relatively fixed pattern of spatial agglomeration; (3) there is a significant inverted-U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and the industrial carbon emission efficiency of cities. The digital economy increases carbon emissions and inhibits industrial carbon emission efficiency in the early stages of development but inhibits carbon emissions and promotes industrial carbon emission efficiency in mature developmental stages. Therefore, cities at all levels should reduce pollution and carbon emissions from high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises, gradually reduce carbon-intensive industries, and accelerate the digital transformation and upgrading of enterprises. Western, central, and eastern regions especially should seek to promote the sharing of innovation resources, strengthen exchanges and interactions relating to scientific and technological innovation, and jointly explore coordinated development routes for the digital economy.