Research on the Measurement and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Swine Industry from the Perspective of the Industry Chain

From the perspective of the industry chain, this paper uses the life cycle assessment (LCA) method to divide the swine industry into six production stages: feed crop cultivation, feed crop transportation and processing, intestinal fermentation, manure management, energy consumption in pig farming, and slaughtering and processing. Using the LCA method, the carbon emissions from the swine industry are measured from 2001 to 2020 for the whole country and 31 provincial regions. Based on the measurement results, this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions from the national swine industry during the study period. Meanwhile, the spatial divergence in carbon emissions from the swine industry and the share of carbon emissions from each production stage were further analyzed by combining different provincial regions and production stages. Afterward, this paper uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions at the national and provincial levels, and in each production stage. It is found that (1) The dynamic evolution of China's swine industry carbon emissions from 2001 to 2020 roughly follows a trend of "slow growth-sharp decline-fluctuating rise-fluctuating decline." The fluctuations are influenced by multiple factors, including the industry structure, agricultural policy, and farming scale. The primary driver for the increase in carbon emissions from the swine industry is the growth in demand for pork consumption, leading to the rise in swine supply. (2) In terms of spatial divergence at the provincial level, the regional differences in carbon emissions from the swine industry are significant, the total carbon emissions and unit carbon emissions of Jiangsu, Anhui, and Henan are higher than the national average. (3) In the production stages of the swine industry, feed crop cultivation and manure management are the primary sources of carbon emissions, associated with factors such as substantial feed consumption, crop production patterns, and backward manure management practices. (4) Regarding influencing factors, production efficiency, industry structure, and urbanization level have inhibiting effects on carbon emissions in the swine industry. Economic development and population scale have promoting effects. Production efficiency is the most significant inhibiting factor, and economic development is the most significant promoting factor. Finally, suggestions are made to curb carbon emissions in China's swine industry, including strengthening environmental control, formulating long-term plans for carbon emission reduction, delineating key areas and demonstration bases for carbon emission reduction, enhancing expertise in fertilizer application and manure treatment, and improving agricultural machinery and equipment.