Mechanisms of Forestry Carbon Sink Policies on Land Use Efficiency: A Perspective from the Drivers of Policy Implementation

Rapid urbanization has brought economic dividends to China, but it has been accompanied by inefficient land use. Meanwhile, the mechanism of forestry carbon sinks (FCSs) on land use efficiency (LUE) has not been sufficiently discussed in the context of the pursuit of "carbon neutrality" around the world. Based on the idea of the benefit-cost theory, this study investigated the impact of FCSs on LUE in 30 provincial-level regions (2006-2019) in China using the difference-in-difference model. The results showed that, first, via the mechanisms of public opinion (PO) and rewards and penalties (RP), FCSs could significantly improve the LUE in the regions, and that the former had a greater effect than the latter; second, the tests of the assumption of parallel trends showed that FCSs had a slower effect on the LUE under the PO mechanism than under the RP mechanism; third, the analysis of the LUE showed that the improvement in LUE mainly occurred in the eastern, central, and southwestern regions of China. The conclusions were as follows: (1) FCS is able to promote LUE via both the PO and RP mechanisms; (2) there is a lag in the promotion of LUE by FCS, and the lag is larger with the PO mechanism; and (3) there is spatial clustering in the promotion of LUE by FCS. In line with these conclusions, we propose policy recommendations to better exploit the policy effects of FCSs in three aspects, namely promoting the development of forestry carbon sink projects, improving the relevant mechanisms of FCSs, and improving the mechanisms of PO and RP.