Satellite-based drought assessment in the endorheic basin of Lake Balkhash

Introduction: This study investigates into the drought-prone region of the Lake Balkhash basin, conducting a thorough analysis spanning 2 decades, emphasizing its significant impact on agriculture and water challenges in Central Asia. Beyond the specific focus on this region, the research aims to contribute valuable insights that extend our understanding of the broader implications of drought in the area.Methods: Utilizing MODIS satellite imagery, the study employs the Vegetation Health Index a comprehensive indicator combining the Vegetation Condition Index and Temperature Condition Index ranging from 0 (extreme aridity) to 100 (optimal moisture). The assessment of drought conditions from 2000 to 2020 includes probabilistic mapping, trend analysis, and Pearson's correlation coefficients. Connections with hydrological factors, such as river water levels and the Balkhash Lake area, are explored, along with in-depth analyses of land use data and the GRACE dataset on water equivalent thickness, enhancing the study's depth and reliability.Results: Drought affected approximately 44% of the Balkhash Lake Basin during the study period, impacting both Kazakhstan and China. Severe drought episodes occurred in 2000, 2008, 2014, and 2015, highlighting the region's vulnerability. Analysis of drought trends revealed diverse patterns: 23% exhibited an increase, 17% showed a decrease, and 60% remained stable. Correlations between drought and hydrological parameters varied among stations, with positive correlations at Kapshagay and Shelek Stations, a weak correlation at Ayagoz Station, and a significant positive correlation at Lepsy despite the elevation.Discussion: This research underscores the intricate link between drought and hydrological factors in the Balkhash Lake Basin, emphasizing the need for precise water resource management and climate adaptation. Crucial strategies include proactive monitoring, tailored interventions, and the application of probabilistic drought mapping to enhance water supply management, contributing actionable insights for sustainable practices in the region.Conclusion: This study significantly advances our understanding of drought dynamics in the Balkhash Lake Basin, recommending adaptive strategies, site-specific interventions, and sustainable water management. The findings provide a crucial foundation for informed water resource decisions in Central Asia, emphasizing the importance of region-specific approaches to address diverse challenges posed by drought.